← Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/21/2025
Fire RileTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/21/2025
decks
11
(30.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
15-8-3
overall winrate
63.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1356
· median 1357
· range 1218–1563
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1213
Q3 1400
1563
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Suited | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Evercurrent Raider, Resolute Stand, Ghosts of Pendragon. Losers more often ran: Grand Crusader's Ring, Spirit of Fire, Safeguard Amulet.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Ghosts of Pendragon
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Uncover the Plot
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Excalibur, Cleansing Light
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 110 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 90 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Fireball | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Galed Erasure | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bring Down the Mighty | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Infusion | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |